曲阜师范大学学报(自然科学版)

以系统动力学理论和方法为工具,立足于利益相关者理论及复杂非线性系统思维,在深入分析冰雪体育产业利益系统组织结构的基础上,以冰雪体育产业产值和人均冰雪体育消费为核心变量,通过绘制因果关系图、流图,编写结构方程,构建了我国冰雪体育产业发展的系统动力学模型,并利用Vensim PLE6.3软件进行仿真预测,得到了2015-2025年的发展趋势图.通过参数的调整与对比为我国冰雪体育产业发展及实现2022年冰雪体育产业发展目标提供参考.结果表明:冰雪体育产业到2025年的预期值小于10000亿产值,与国家提出的冰雪体育产业发展规划的产值还有一定差距,人均冰雪体育消费在2008-2025年保持稳步上升,但直至2025年也未达到人均冰雪消费3000元的目标.并提出了相应的对策.

Taking the theory and method of system dynamics as the tool, based on the theory of stakeholders and complex nonlinear systems thingking, on the basis of in-depth analysis of the organizational structure of the interests system of the ice and snow sports industry,the output value of the ice and snow sports industry and per capita ice and snow sports consumption is the core variable.By drawing causal graphs,flow graphs and writing structural equations,the system dynamics model of China's ice and snow sports industry development is constructed,and the simulation prediction is carried out by using Vensim PLE6.3 software.The development trend chart from 2015-2025 is obtained.In addition,through the adjustment and comparison of parameters,it provides reference for the development of China's ice and snow sports industry and the realization of the development goal of the ice and snow sports industry in 2022.The results show that the expected value of the ice and snow sports industry is less than 100 billion in output value by 2025.There is still a certain gap between the output value of the ice and snow sports industry development plan proposed by the state.The per capita snow sports consumption has steadily increased in 2008-2025,but it will not rise until 2025.Nor has it reached the goal of 3,000 yuan per capita ice and snow consumption.At the end of the study,the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to lay a solid theoretical foundation for the comprehensive and healthy development of China's ice and snow sports industry.